Southern Louisiana is highly vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes.
This makes it an important region for studying public perceptions of the underlying causes of these events. Since 2000, hurricanes like Katrina and Rita (2005), Gustav (2008), Laura (2020), Ida (2021) and Francine (2024) have caused significant damage and had lasting impacts on the region. Understanding how communities perceive and interpret these events is critical, yet politics may be shaping these perceptions.
According to the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment in 2014, the intensity, frequency and duration of tropical storms — and the frequency of major hurricanes (Category 3-5) — have all increased since the early 1980s. These storms are fueled by warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico which provide the energy needed for hurricanes to strengthen.
Additionally, a growing number of storms undergo rapid intensification, with wind speeds increasing dramatically over a short period. In a warmer world, with more moisture in the atmosphere, storms produce heavier rainfall. Together, stronger winds and heavier rainfall are intensifying the size, impact and danger of Gulf hurricanes.
Ed Chervenak
This trend of increasingly severe storms in the Gulf has sparked a debate over the causes behind the escalation. Many scientists argue that the Earth’s climate is warming due to human activities, particularly with the burning of fossil fuels and industrial emissions, which are seen as the primary drivers of global climate change. Conversely, some scientists and commentators question the extent of human influence on climate change, suggesting that climate change may be part of the planet’s natural cycles and asserting that these storms are periodic natural events.
In light of this ongoing debate — and the reality that hurricanes are a regular part of life in southeast Louisiana — the Survey Research Center at the University of New Orleans asked registered voters in Orleans and Jefferson parishes whether they believe the severity of recent storms is primarily due to global climate change, or if they view them as severe weather events that simply occur periodically.
The survey revealed a clear difference in opinion between Orleans and Jefferson Parishes on the causes of the recent storm severity. In Orleans Parish, two-thirds of respondents believe that global climate change is responsible for the increased intensity of recent hurricanes. In Jefferson Parish, 45% of respondents share this view, while 47% see severe hurricanes as natural events that occur periodically. These findings indicate that people in different locations have different opinions on the causes of the increased severity of storms.
However, national studies indicate public opinion on climate change is often shaped by political affiliation, making it a highly politicized issue. For instance, a 2022 Pew Research study found that 54% of U.S. adults considered climate change a threat to the country’s welfare. However, partisanship influenced perceptions, as 78% of Democrats viewed climate change as a national threat, compared to just 23% of Republicans.
To further explore this topic, we analyzed how party affiliation influences perceptions of hurricane severity among residents of both parishes. The results suggest that partisanship, rather than location, is the primary factor guiding views on the causes of the severity of hurricanes. In both Orleans and Jefferson Parishes, 71% of Republicans agree that severe hurricanes are periodic natural events.
Conversely, three-quarters of Democrats in both parishes believe that global climate change is responsible for the increased intensity of recent hurricanes. The partisan divide, evident nationwide, is also reflected at the local level in southern Louisiana, a region highly vulnerable to the impact of hurricanes.
Southern Louisiana is at ground zero for hurricane activity, where tropical storms and hurricanes are a way of life. Communities prepare as best they can and we work together to recover after each storm. Despite this shared experience, understanding the causes of increasingly severe hurricanes remains a deeply polarizing issue. In this sense, despite facing the same storms and sharing the same struggles, our understanding of their causes reflects a profoundly divided world.
